On February 25^th, 2021, the Institute of Energy Policy and Research (IEPRe), Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN) has organized an hour-long live webinar session entitled ‘Energy Outlook Towards 2050 and Post-Corona Scenario’. The speaker of this webinar is Professor Dr. Ken Koyama, the Managing Director of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ). He is also currently the Chair of Energy Economics of Energy Commission at UNITEN since 7 December 2015.

The live event was moderated by the Head of Unit, Program and Short Course of IEPRe, Dr. Muhummad Khairul Islam. The webinar commenced at 10.30 a.m. with a brief overview of the statutory functions of IEPRe and the introduction of the speaker, Professor Dr. Ken Koyama.

Professor Dr. Ken Koyama presented the findings from the latest IEEJ Outlook 2021, which highlights the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global energy outlook. The energy outlook was presented based on the regular scenarios which include the reference scenario (RS) or Business-as-usual scenario, and future and advanced technology scenario (ATS) which involve the maximum introduction of energy-related technologies (bottom-up approach). The outlook focuses on the post-corona world transformation scenario (PCS), circular carbon economy (CCE), or the 4R (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle, and Remove) scenario, and the updated cost-benefit (total cost minimization) analysis of climate change.

The speaker reiterated that the COVID-19 pandemic causes a transformation in politics, the economy, and society. Climate measures continue, but the extent of efforts differs in each country and region. The analyses conducted emphasized the security and progress of digitalization. The emphasis on security has the objectives of ensuring the safety and health of people, including measures against infection and reviewing global supply chains based on the emphasis on security. The progress in digitalization is due to the increment in remote activities to reduce people’s movements and personal contacts, as well as decentralization from large cities. He further explained that in the RS, energy demand increases by 30%, with more than 60% of the increment coming from the Asian region. While in the PCS, stagnation in free trade causes the world economy to shrink by 10% by 2050.

The 4D (decarbonization, deregulation, digitalization, and decentralization) challenges in the electricity sector were discussed during the webinar. Digitalization challenges the electricity sector as electricity demand surges to cater to the digital society, while the electricity sector needs to accommodate decentralization of the electricity systems. In the RS, gas-fired power, and renewable energy (RE) support the rapidly increasing electricity demand. However, coal-fired power is still needed in developing countries. In the PCS, the shift to nuclear and RE sources progresses, while the use of natural gas, which is highly dependent on imports, is curtailed. As competition for the development of innovative technologies progresses, hydrogen begins to be used for power generation. The speaker stated that the climate change issue is a long-term challenge influencing vast areas over many generations. The combination of different approaches to reduce the total cost of mitigation, adaptation and the damage of climate change is important.

The live webinar had 87 participants from various organizations within and outside Malaysia. The organizers engaged the attendees to send in questions while the webinar was in progress. Among significant questions raised by the attendees include:

1. Looking at the Digitalization effort taking place during corona and industry revolution 4.0, where business starts moving their operation online which require more reliance on electricity, will the industry able to meet such demand and will this affect the carbon zero target worldwide?
2. One of the focuses of Biden's energy policies is to accelerate the development of Renewable Energy to reduce the effect of global warming in the US. What is the anticipated impact of this policy globally?
3. Since natural gas is one of the main feedstocks for producing grey hydrogen, will the global increment in grey hydrogen production influence natural gas demand and supply in the long run?
4. There is increasing intention of major countries to go forward with EV and achieving carbon neutrality in the years ahead even when they have not done so. How would you view the energy outlook in the years ahead when there is a potential changing policy by major countries with changes of governments regarding carbon neutrality?

The speaker concluded that there is a need to address carbon neutrality and energy security problems as well as focusing on technology development and deployment in hydrogen energy, RE, and zero-emissions vehicles (ZEV). Besides, there is a potential to develop new unconventional energy sources and technologies in the future.

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The slide can be downloaded here

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